Gender share prediction.


Chemical industry



Employees in 2018:


Received service/product:

Gender share prediction

Faced challenges

With more than 115.000 employees worldwide, BASF provides chemical products for all areas of life. HRForecast supported BASF to predict how the share of females in the company, especially in leadership positions, will develop in the next few years based on historical talent management behavior and levers, like promotions, hires and attrition.

„With HRForecast we could simulate realistic diversity scenarios supporting us in target setting and defining suitable measures to achieve .“

Gerhard MüllerHead of Diversity & Inclusion, BASF SE

Questions to be clarified

  • What is the optimal target of female share in leadership positions which can be reached by 2025?
  • What are possible scenarios for female share utilizing different talent management levers (e.g. promotion rate, hiring rate, attrition rates)?
  • What is the predictable female share in leadership positions in 2025?
  • What are the bottlenecks and drivers fostering or preventing female share in leadership roles?

Project approach

/ 1    Validation of available data

In the first step the relevant data snapshots were merged together. The factors to be analysed were identified and classified in three clusters: ‘Promotion’, ‘Hiring’ and ‘Leavers’. Data quality management was conducted to assure data integrity.

/ 2     Identify bottlenecks and levers to improve

The Internal Development Model (IDM) – a model to predict factors regarding the talent pipeline – was set up. Various parameters for hires, promotions as well as information about leavers were fed to the model.

/ 3     Define future scenarios & predict future share

The Internal Development Model (IDM) predicts the female share in all levels until 2025. Three scenarios with a focus on the leadership level were investigated.

Key insights & value-adds for the client

The client received …

…various scenarios for the development of the diversity share.

The client received…

…levers to increase the diversity share faster.

…global socio-cultural benchmarks for diversity.

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